Issue No 533, February 2026 

Executive Summary

Over the next two years the patterns of coal trade are bound to change as rerouting takes hold, as a result of a structural shift from an era of volume to an era of quality & efficiency that is now unfolding. This will permeate both our scenarios of a Tectonic-Break & Plunge-Recovery, which capture the downside & upside risks. 

This letter examines key issues underlying current structural shifts including, Indonesia’s production quotas, China’s expected increase in its domestic output, China’s policy shift in the electricity grid, Australia’s gain and Indian demand.