Goals & Scope
Our goal is to provide a clear analytical framework with a causal chain of associated risks. It concisely captures key determining issues, forces at play and policy developments that result in structural shifts, to enrich the decision-making process of business leaders, asset managers and Think Tanks.
Our expertise is centred on providing a practical navigation system alongside investment advice to equip clients with choices that bridge our research with client expertise. We use this to formulate investment strategies for tangible and financial assets, to minimise adverse impacts, and capitalise on opportunities through a mix of varied communications and written reports.
Structural Developments
We apply optimal control theory and game theory to our macro-geopolitical-industry-financial models to decipher key Structural Developments that include:
- Business cycles: demand, supply, liquidity, geopolitical.
- Fiscal-Monetary Wedges: easy/tight; the US in 2025 & the 1980s, German reunification.
- Imbalances: budget, current account – public, domestic & foreign debt.
- Supply-Side Constraints: Energy, Global supply chains, Labor.
- Geopolitical Games: Cooperation-Pareto vs Competition-Nash equilibria.
- Deregulation: unfettered vs regulated markets (Glass-Steagall Act), globalization vs national security.
- Reputation Games: Time-consistent vs time-inconsistent policies, Volcker vs post-GFC.
- Cycle Stabilization: fiscal vs monetary policy, automatic stabilizers vs discretionary policies.
We use our deep understanding of markets to assess the impact of these structural shifts on asset prices (tangible & financial), the cost of capital, and associated risks.
Using this apparatus, we provide unified risk management that builds a main scenario upon which to evaluate upside and downside risks, and capture the geopolitical reality.
Our practical approach assists our clients by filtering the vast deluge of information to distil the “signal” (systematic factors) from the market noise. It aligns capital with the Geoeconomic-Macro Cycle and bridges it with bottom-line asset performance to stay ahead of the curve.